Climate Predictions: Worst-Case May Be Most Accurate, Study Finds
Juli Berwald
National Geographic News
Nov 8, 2012 published
The superstorm of Sandy, climate change has many radar. By some accounts, the sea temperatures warm Gulf Stream storm as it plowed up, and the rising flood waters might have been.
Now, a new study in Science journal says climate change warming is here to stay. And predict future warming is likely to be high, researchers concluded.
expected?
This increase in temperature, called equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated 5 degrees F (2.8 degrees Celsius) around, hover about 2100. But more than doubled forecast 3 to 8 degrees F (1.7 4.4 C) to vary.
3 with increasing degrees F, for example, New York City Richmond, Virginia will feel like. With increasing degree 8 F, New York Atlanta, Georgia will experience temperatures like these.
(Comments: "Climate change a major victory in the 2012 elections.")
Clouds hold key to climate change
Sensitivity of climate to the first report in 1979, no one has been able to limit its range. To try to solve the mystery, Fasullo and Trenberth in both atmospheric rock (NCAR) U.S. National Center for Research, the sky is seen in Colorado.
Fasullo the cloud temperature is important in pinpointing the expected level of growth. The Earth's energy budget exert an important influence. Since they're white, clouds, sunlight, cooling the Earth is reflected. Depending on how high they are in the environment, like a blanket to hold the heat is working.
But the clouds change shape, size, and brightness immediately, the difficulty of modeling. Profile comments are satellite clouds, and contains errors.
To sidestep these issues, how are clouds Fasullo and Trenberth has decided instead to look at. The high relative humidity in the atmosphere are water vapor. Facility, high-quality relative humidity data is readily available from satellites. (Related: "Global Warming Supercharged by Water Vapor?")
Eye of the Storm?
Referred to in the dry zone climate research team focuses on the areas has been.
Several thousand feet of the atmosphere above the Earth's surface dry zone where clouds form a key role in future climate can play in Hoover troposphere.
Dry zone in the northern hemisphere between 10 and 30 degrees latitude occupied, Venezuela and Florida level, respectively.
16 different climate scientists intergovernmental panel on climate change, the most recent study by the model used in dry relative humidity than is found in areas.
Fasullo and Trenberth found three models that match the same observation that most of the moisture in the 8 degree F temperature rise before the end of the century were with. At least right model overpredicted relative humidity and the temperature rise is less.
Fasullo used the analogy "dry areas like climate system is warming with IRIS, IRIS is spread, reduced cloud cover allows more heat." Models that do not provide dry zone was found to extend data fail to accurately describe, he explained.
Karen Shell, an environmental scientist at Oregon State University who was not involved in the research, agreed that it Fasullo and Trenberth workaround is realized. "This is a promising technology, it is a study, but if this relationship holds, this means that climate sensitivity is much higher than at the end."
